Why many savers choose it again
Francisco Rinaldi / [email protected]
The high interest rate policy tested by the BCRA in recent weeks is attracting savers, who are betting heavily on traditional fixed income with monthly returns in line with expected inflation.
This is how the attractiveness of this recognized savings instrument has greatly increased for individuals, with an annual nominal rate (ANR) of 69.5% for 30-day deposits up to 10,000,000 pesos. So much so that with a balance of more than 7.2 trillion pesos as of August 31, they increased by 79.5% compared to the previous year and added an additional 66.4% from January to the previous month, according to BCRA data.
The reason for this option is not difficult: if a person decides to make a fixed deposit today, they will withdraw a month later at 5.7% monthly interest, a few points above projected inflation. for the same period. 5.3% during the month of July by economic advisors participating in the monthly Market Expectations Survey (REM).
For example, if the person in question deposits $1,000,000 today, Thursday September 8, 2022, to withdraw on Monday October 10 (October 8 falls on a Saturday, then the capital will be held on the agreed date for another two days) . As for the left bank), may add 60,931.51 pesos as interest.
However, Gaston Milanesi, finance expert and undergraduate and graduate professor at UNS, cautions: “While attractive, the nominal rate of 69.5% yields annual value (R of N: how much to pay for a fixed period of 30 days) If it is renewed for the following twelve months during this period) 96% Therefore, if the expected inflation one year ahead is lower than this figure, the fixed period will be higher than inflation, otherwise not.
Therefore, the attractiveness of this instrument will depend on the ability of the current government to avoid overinflation (read, that inflation does not rise to 100% or more), which it is trying to achieve with, say, reference interest rate. , the policy that BCRA will reiterate in the coming days, at the next meeting of its Board of Directors.
Thus, the increase in rates is due to the need for the government to avoid the “leakage” of savings in pesos to the dollar, reducing the pressure on the exchange rate in its various versions, avoiding the use of highly flammable fuels for inflation. For.
“The goal is to avoid an inflationary rush and a rise in the dollar, the equivalent of this process is the tremendous increase in the cost of credit, and I am not talking about business credit, which is almost non-existent today, but Consumer Credits,” Milanesi warned.
And that is exactly what is happening today: the average interest rate charged by banks for their consumer loans has risen from 52.5% per annum in January of this year to 82.3% currently, an increase of almost 30 points in less than a year. .
On the credit card side, the Monetary Authority through communication A7577 ordered an increase in financing rates to 71.5% for the current month. According to a note by Fernando Minos (Infobay), the advertised rate is equal to 125% of the total financial cost (CFT).
Therefore, a significant slowdown in activity in an economy where 70% of all GDP is explained by private consumption is exempt.